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Today in the cryptocurrency landscape, the actions of prominent bettors on Polymarket have raised alarms regarding the potential manipulation of the decentralized prediction market's accuracy, particularly in light of the upcoming United States presidential election on November 5. A recent survey indicates that there exists a "crypto voting bloc" comprising approximately 26 million voters participating in the election. Additionally, the FBI has announced the arrest of an individual believed to be responsible for hacking the SEC’s X account in January.
Concerns over manipulation arise as Polymarket whale influences Trump’s odds
The increasing odds of former President Donald Trump in the 2024 United States presidential election have reportedly been significantly swayed by a major Polymarket user known as “Fredi9999,” who has placed over $20 million in bets favoring Trump.
This information follows a report from Cointelegraph, which noted that Trump’s odds of winning the presidential election surged to an unprecedented 60.2% on October 16.
The surge in Trump’s odds has prompted inquiries, as it seems disconnected from real-world events that could account for such a shift in public sentiment, according to Alex Momot, founder and CEO of Peanut Trade.
Momot stated to Coinnews:
“What’s paradoxical is that the situation on Polymarket is now influencing the real world, where many people believe what they see on the platform. The upcoming US presidential election will serve as a key example for assessing the reliability of prediction markets.”
As the election approaches, the necessity of scrutinizing potential manipulation within prediction markets becomes increasingly critical, especially with less than three weeks remaining until Election Day.
Survey reveals a “crypto voting bloc” of 26 million ahead of US elections
Approximately 26 million voters in the United States are identified as part of a “crypto voting bloc,” with pro-crypto policies being their primary criterion when determining their voting choices in the upcoming election, according to a survey published on October 17 by a cryptocurrency advocacy group.
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